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Woes will trail Bush to Latin America
2007-03-03
Second-term presidents often find comfort in foreign policy and overseas travel as they lose clout at home. A statesman-abroad strategy, however, will not work particularly well for President Bush on a six-day Latin American trip designed to signal a revitalized U.S. commitment to the region. Bush is unpopular throughout the globe, even in this country's backyard, and will find it hard to escape the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan no matter where he goes. Bush's trip -- to generally friendly nations -- is intended to show renewed interest in a part of the world that has felt neglected since the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001. He will promote closer trade ties, more anti-drug trafficking cooperation and an increased emphasis on biofuels and other alternate energy sources. Bush's tour, which begins Thursday, will take him to Brazil, Uruguay, Colombia, Guatemala and Mexico. Undersecretary of State Nicholas Burns calls 2007 "a year of engagement" with Latin America. But Bush goes with a weak hand. The Democratic takeover of Congress and rising protectionist sentiment threaten the free-trade agreements Bush wants. His power, granted by Congress, to negotiate such deals in an expedited way expires on July 1. Renewal is dubious. Bush's hosts are mindful of a president hobbled at home by low approval by ratings and an opposition-led Congress, and with little say in his own party's choice of a 2008 presidential candidate to succeed him. Increasingly, Bush is drawing taunts from leftist Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez. Chavez, who aligns himself with Cuba's Fidel Castro, says Bush's trip is an attempt to stir up trouble between Venezuela and its neighbors. Chavez calls Bush "the little gentleman from the North, the king of invaders, the king of liars." Kenneth Rogoff, a Harvard professor and former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund, said Latin America "desperately needs attention from the United States. We've just ignored it too much for too long. And especially now, where there is this big shift to the left going on," he said. "The influence of Chavez in Latin America is cancerous. It's a very dangerous moment. And long-term U.S. interests could be deeply threatened," Rogoff said. As U.S. presidents serve deep into their terms, they have found it harder to earn domestic victories in Congress and often throw themselves into foreign policy. This is especially true for presidents in their second terms, as Bush is now. President Clinton, for example, spent his last days in office trying to deliver a peace deal in the Middle East after surviving an impeachment battle. President Nixon traveled to Moscow to sign major arms-control agreements months before the Watergate scandal forced his resignation. President Eisenhower, after Democrats swept the 1958 congressional elections, found the only leverage he had at home was to veto bills. He preferred touring the world instead. But Eisenhower was greeted as a hero and Clinton drew huge crowds and affection overseas. Bush, by comparison, is widely disliked. "The president is going to a part of the world that hasn't been terribly controversial and where he hopes to leave some positive legacy," said Geoff Thale of the Washington Office on Latin America. The nonprofit organization promotes civil rights and democracy. "I think it's great that he's going. But the question is, other than on the rhetorical level, is he going to accomplish anything?" Thomas Shannon, who heads the State Department's Latin America bureau, denies that the administration has failed to pay enough attention to Latin America. "I've looked at charts back to 1982, and this administration is spending more money than any administration has spent over several decades" in the region, he said. Still, there is no doubt that Bush's own expectations are lower. During his 2000 campaign, he said Latin America would be a "fundamental commitment of my presidency." Soon after taking office, he stood with other leaders at a "Summit of the Americas" in Quebec City, Canada, and advocated a free-trade zone ranging from Alaska to Chile's Cape Horn. The Sept. 11 attacks reordered his priorities. "Given the circumstances with the attention paid in the Middle East, Latin America has gotten even less attention than it usually does," said Peter DeShazo, deputy secretary of state for Western Hemisphere Affairs until 2004. He now works at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. Hopes for a hemisphere-wide trade pact are dashed. Brazil, South America's biggest economy, helped form a rival trade bloc with Argentina, Paraguay, Uruguay and, more recently, Venezuela. Bush instead has sought country-by-country trade deals. Three are pending -- with Peru, Colombia and Panama. A free trade deal is being negotiated with Uruguay, whose president, Tabare Vazquez, has expressed unhappiness with the rival bloc. Bush won approval of a Central America Free Trade Agreement in 2005 by only a single vote in the Senate -- and Congress was then in Republican hands. There has been a U.S.-Canada-Mexico free trade pact since the early 1990s. Bush is expected to focus on free trade and efforts to combat drug trafficking in Colombia, the largest recipient of U.S. aid besides the Middle East and Afghanistan. Throughout the trip, and especially in Brazil, Bush will promote biofuels and energy self-reliance. In Mexico, Bush will meet with the new president, conservative Felipe Calderon. Issues include drugs, migration and unresolved trade disputes over trucking rights and agricultural products.
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